{"id":10260,"date":"2022-12-07T15:44:40","date_gmt":"2022-12-07T22:44:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ma.jvista.net\/?page_id=10260"},"modified":"2025-11-04T11:09:57","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T18:09:57","slug":"uncertainty-assessment-and-decision-support-modeling","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/elmontgomery.com\/es\/services\/modeling\/uncertainty-assessment-and-decision-support-modeling\/","title":{"rendered":"Evaluaci\u00f3n de la incertidumbre y modelado de apoyo a la toma de decisiones"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"fusion-fullwidth fullwidth-box fusion-builder-row-1 fusion-flex-container nonhundred-percent-fullwidth non-hundred-percent-height-scrolling\" style=\"--awb-border-radius-top-left:0px;--awb-border-radius-top-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-right:0px;--awb-border-radius-bottom-left:0px;--awb-flex-wrap:wrap;\" ><div class=\"fusion-builder-row fusion-row fusion-flex-align-items-flex-start fusion-flex-content-wrap\" style=\"max-width:1248px;margin-left: calc(-4% \/ 2 );margin-right: calc(-4% \/ 2 );\"><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-0 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:0px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:20px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-order-medium:0;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-order-small:0;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-column-has-shadow fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-1\" style=\"--awb-font-size:26px;--awb-line-height:30px;--awb-text-color:var(--awb-color6);\"><p>Reducir el riesgo mediante la comprensi\u00f3n de la incertidumbre<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"fusion-layout-column fusion_builder_column fusion-builder-column-1 fusion_builder_column_1_1 1_1 fusion-flex-column\" style=\"--awb-bg-blend:overlay;--awb-bg-size:cover;--awb-width-large:100%;--awb-margin-top-large:-20px;--awb-spacing-right-large:1.92%;--awb-margin-bottom-large:0px;--awb-spacing-left-large:1.92%;--awb-width-medium:100%;--awb-spacing-right-medium:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-medium:1.92%;--awb-width-small:100%;--awb-spacing-right-small:1.92%;--awb-spacing-left-small:1.92%;\"><div class=\"fusion-column-wrapper fusion-flex-justify-content-flex-start fusion-content-layout-column\"><div class=\"fusion-text fusion-text-2\"><p>Las decisiones sobre los recursos h\u00eddricos pueden ser riesgosas y costosas. Creamos herramientas de planificaci\u00f3n flexibles que integran una gama de factores interrelacionados para cuantificar la incertidumbre y simular resultados. Estos modelos de soporte de decisiones (DSM) var\u00edan en alcance, de simples a complejos; a menudo, los modelos relativamente econ\u00f3micos pueden proporcionar informaci\u00f3n valiosa para guiar las decisiones de planificaci\u00f3n de los recursos h\u00eddricos. Todos los modelos cuentan con tableros personalizados.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"\" style=\"--fontsize: 36; line-height: 1.2;\" data-fontsize=\"36\" data-lineheight=\"43.2px\">Capacidades<\/h3>\n<p>M&amp;A utiliza una variedad de herramientas para desarrollar DSM: GoldSim\u00ae, bases de datos (Access o Excel), modelos num\u00e9ricos de flujo de agua subterr\u00e1nea y ArcGIS. Tambi\u00e9n podemos realizar <em>an\u00e1lisis de riesgos cuantitativos<\/em> proporcionar informaci\u00f3n no solo sobre la probabilidad de que ocurra un evento, sino tambi\u00e9n sobre su costo. Las aplicaciones de DSM incluyen, pero no se limitan a:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Pron\u00f3stico y an\u00e1lisis de la demanda de agua<\/strong>. Aplicamos an\u00e1lisis estad\u00edsticos y econom\u00e9tricos para modelar la demanda futura de agua, teniendo en cuenta las incertidumbres relacionadas con la disponibilidad de agua, las tendencias sociodemogr\u00e1ficas, las tarifas del agua, los programas de conservaci\u00f3n, la sequ\u00eda y el cambio clim\u00e1tico, la pol\u00edtica regulatoria y otros factores.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Optimizaci\u00f3n de datos<\/strong>. Nuestros DSM ayudan a los clientes a optimizar la recopilaci\u00f3n de datos al considerar las incertidumbres sobre las propiedades de los acu\u00edferos y las fuentes de contaminantes, la distribuci\u00f3n y las rutas de migraci\u00f3n.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Optimizaci\u00f3n de campos de pozos<\/strong>. Usamos DSM para identificar el mejor escenario de bombeo para campos de pozos.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>M&amp;A es una de las 14 organizaciones a nivel mundial que cumplen con los requisitos para ser nombrada Proveedor de Soluciones Certificado GoldSim. Lea m\u00e1s en <a href=\"https:\/\/elmontgomery.com\/news\/ma-named-goldsim-certified-solution-provider\/\" data-no-translation=\"\">M&amp;A News<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"parent":224,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-10260","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Uncertainty Assessment and Decision Support Modeling - Montgomery &amp; Associates<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Uncertainty assessment and decision support modeling reduces risk by understanding uncertainty\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/elmontgomery.com\/es\/services\/modeling\/uncertainty-assessment-and-decision-support-modeling\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Uncertainty Assessment and Decision Support Modeling - Montgomery &amp; 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