Decision Support Modeling

Reducing risk by understanding uncertainty

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How effective will your cleanup be in 5 years? How should you plan for a long-term water supply in the face of changing policies, demands, and aquifer conditions? How many wells will you need to meet water demands with 95 percent confidence for the next 10 years?

Water-resource decisions can be risky and expensive. We create flexible planning tools that integrate a range of interrelated factors to quantify uncertainty and simulate outcomes. These decision support models (DSMs) models vary in scope, from simple to complex; often, relatively inexpensive models can provide valuable information for guiding water-resource planning decisions. All models feature custom dashboards.

Capabilities

M&A uses a range of tools to develop DSMs — GoldSim®, databases (Access or Excel), numerical groundwater flow models, and ArcGIS. We can also conduct quantitative risk analyses to provide information not only about the likelihood of an event occurring but also its cost. DSM applications include, but are not limited to…

  • Water Demand Forecasting & Analysis. We apply statistical and econometric analyses to model future water demand, accounting for uncertainties related to water availability, socio-demographic trends, water rates, conservation programs, drought and climate change, regulatory policy, and other factors.
  • Data Optimization. Our DSMs help clients optimize data collection by considering uncertainties about aquifer properties and contaminant sources, distribution, and migration pathways.
  • Wellfield Optimization. We use DSMs to identify the best pumping scenario for wellfields.